The UK restaurant market felt the catastrophic impact of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, declining -53.1% to a value of £8.9bn. The vaccine roll-out and pent up consumer demand gives hope to the sector for 2021, although much will depend on restrictions and crucially when outlets can re-open for dine-in. Operators, suppliers and wholesalers who understand the consumer and market trends will be best placed to maximise their impact upon reopening, by adapting and innovating their offer accordingly.
The Lumina Intelligence Restaurant Market Report 2020/21 is the definitive report for the UK restaurant industry. Our market forecasts comprise of three scenarios for what market recovery in 2021 could look like and we put the data in context with commentary from business leaders as well as validation from external performance barometers.
The report includes consumer insight, which shows how consumers have responded to the closure of dine-in operations by quantifying uptake of takeaway, delivery and click & collect. We also share consumer sentiment about returning to restaurants from our exclusive research.
Executive summary
Market analysis
- A timeline of key events over the last 12 months
- An overview of the restaurant market landscape and key sub-sectors, including market sizing and growth (benchmarked vs total eating out market)
- Restaurant market drivers and inhibitors Competitive landscape
- Detailed analysis of leading restaurant brands (including quantification of outlet decline and 2021 forecasts)
- Market developments (including operator innovation in the face of the pandemic)
- M&A activity across the sector
- Rankings of branded restaurant players
Menu analysis
- Product and price analysis of restaurant brand menus to understand changes, by course, in:
- Dish counts
- NPD
- Pricing
Consumer insight
- Consumer demographics
- Where consumers go to ‘eat out’
- Why they choose a specific outlet
- How often they ‘eat out’
- What they purchase
- Barriers to purchasing
- Analysis on the desire of consumers to return to hospitality
Future outlook
- Three scenarios for restaurant performance in 2021 based on different restrictions across the year • Market concerns and market opportunities
- Key levers of sales growth for restaurants
- Consumer appetite for technology in restaurants
- Consumer eating out behaviour: based on 78,000 surveys across the year from Lumina Intelligence’s Eating & Drinking Out Panel
- Consumer attitudes and future intentions based on a bespoke survey
- Menu insight from Lumina Intelligence Menu Tracker
- Operator performance for 140 leading branded restaurant operators from Lumina Intelligence Operator Data Index
- Business Leaders perspectives from Lumina Intelligence Top of Mind business leaders survey and Hospitality Leaders Poll